My Oscar predictions.

(Disclaimer: All predictions are spurious at best.)

Picture: If you don't like the expression 'sentimental favorite'...well, tough titty, 'cause you're gonna see it a lot, starting with this category. It's all about The Artist. I liked it, but didn't love it. I'll not harbor a grudge if it wins. Hell, as long as Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close is left out in the rain. A drama about 9/11 with a main character named Oskar?! How crass can you get?
Actor: I've heard everywhere that this is, essentially, a two-man race between George Clooney and Jean Dujardin. I'm going with Dujardin.
Actress: Viola Davis. What else do I need to say?
Supporting Actor: The sentimental favorite in this category is Christopher Plummer. Haven't seen Beginners, though I'm sure it will be a deserving win.
Supporting Actress: There's been talk about Octavia Spencer taking the prize, which I have no problem with, but if there's an upset...Berenice Bejo.
Director: Martin Scorcese's craft was as strong as ever in Hugo, but it'll likely go to Michel Hazanavicius...or Terence Malick, if the Academy is feeling cheeky.
Original Screenplay: The Academy loves Woody Allen, so I see a sure win for Midnight in Paris...which I haven't yet seen.
Adapted Screenplay: Moneyball. I just have a feeling.
Editing: As much as I'd love Kevin Tent to finally get an Oscar, this will go to The Artist.
Cinematography: I really liked Robert Richardson's work on Hugo (that opening shot will put your jaw on the floor), but (based on the trailer), I think that Emmanuel Lubezki's lush work on The Tree of Life will be rewarded.
Art Direction: Definitely Hugo. That train station looked incredible.
Costume Design: Just watch. The Academy will be determined to reward The Artist as much as possible. Lucky break for Mark Bridges. Can you believe his eye-catching work in Boogie Nights and There Will Be Blood was ignored?
Animated Feature: Rango was my favorite animated feature of last year and, as you may recall, my favorite film of the year.
Animated Short Subject: Once again, I caught the program of animated shorts. However, "La Luna" was missing (likely because Pixar wants to show it before Brave this summer). I felt that "A Morning Stroll" was a shaggy-dog joke that never paid off and, despite some nice moments, I couldn't make heads or tails of "Dimanche (Sunday)". That leaves me with the spell-binding "The Fantastic Flying Books of Morris Lessmore" and the amusing, bittersweet "Wild Life". The smart money's on the former.
Live-Action Short Subject: What's this? An actual opinion on this category? Yes, I did stay for the live-action shorts. After a promising start, "Pentecost" kind of fizzled out. "Time Freak" was quite funny...so it's definitely out as a sure bet. The other three shorts were striking with their local color, but between the heartbreaking "Raju", the fairly engaging "The Shore" and the peculiar-yet-touching "Tuba Atlantic", I'm torn. Let's say..."Tuba Atlantic".
Foreign Film: I couldn't even effing tell you what these's movies are about, but let's say...Canada's Monsieur Lazhar.
Visual Effects: The bid to nominate Andy Serkis for Best Supporting Actor was a(n unfortunate) flop. In that spirit, this should go to Rise of the Planet of the Apes.
Sound: I imagine that the Academy will want to give War Horse something...
Sound Effects Editing: ...so, why not?
Make-Up: Albert Nobbs. I can only imagine what a woman goes through to look like a man.
Original Score: One of the rare years where anyone in the category could win the prize and I wouldn't be the least bit upset. I loved Hugo and Tintin to pieces, but Ludovic Bource had best make room on his mantle.
Original Song: "Man or Muppet". Save for "Pretty Bird", I didn't really feel one way or another about the songs in Rio. (Fun fact: "Pretty Bird" was co-written by Jemaine Clement, while "Man or Muppet" was penned by his "Flight of the Conchords" partner, Bret McKenzie. How funny would it have been to have the two of them against each other? Total missed opportunity.)
Documentary Short Subject: "The Barber of Birmingham: Foot Soldier of the Civil Rights Movement".
Documentary Feature: "Undefeated". Sometimes, folks, the 'names out of a hat' approach is best.

Oh, and 'sentimental favorite'.