So, what do you think is gonna win?

Well, here we are again. On the cusp of another Oscar ceremony. Of course, I'll be watching. And my picks to win (No bitching about what I think should've been nominated, I promise.):

Picture: Oppenheimer. Why not?

Actor: Pretty solid lineup, but I'm picking...Paul Giamatti. Marvelous work and he is long overdue.

Actress: Lily Gladstone. Just wonderful.

Supporting Actor: Robert Downey, Jr., as he was quite good and, given that I saw Chaplin for the first time last week, let's call this a make-up Oscar for the time they gave it to Hoo-ah!

Supporting Actress: Da'Vine Joy Randolph. Turns out her name is pronounced 'DAY-vine'. Go figure.

Director: Christopher Nolan.

Original Screenplay: The Holdovers.

Adapted Screenplay: American Fiction, because - in spite of strongly disagreeing with the ending - I feel it ought to get something.

Cinematography: Oppenheimer.

Editing: Oppenheimer.

Production Design: Barbie. They ran out of pink paint. Don't let that sacrifice be in vain.

Original Score: No truly objectionable nominees here. A welcome change. Oppenheimer. One of the better scores from a Nolan movie.

Original Song: What it really comes down to is which Barbie song will win. "I'm Just Ken" is a nice power ballad, but expect the sentimental vote to go to "What Was I Made For?".

Costume Design: Barbie. It makes sense, don't it?

Sound: Oppenheimer. I'd like to think that Nolan knew that audiences were getting a little logy and the explosion would be just the thing to wake them up and keep them up.

Animated Feature: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse. My reasons are my own...and because it was awesome.

Animated Short: Now, for these next few categories, I'm just gonna pick the one I like the best from its Wikipedia page. Of these, I pick "War is Over!".

Live-Action Short: Though "Invincible" sounds interesting, I'm gonna say "Red, White and Blue". It seems like it delivers its message a lot cleaner than, say, "The After". A win for that would be perfectly on brand for some of the last few years of winners in the category; shorts that wallow in misery while purporting to deliver a message. I have no patience for that.

Documentary Short: I'd have said "The Barber of Little Rock" in a walk, but "Nai Nai and Wai Po" sounds ridiculously adorable.

Documentary Feature: "20 Days in Mariupol" sounds properly harrowing and timelier than ever given you-know-who's plans for Ukraine.

Foreign Language Film: Io capitano.

Visual Effects: Haven't seen the movie, but the fact that (apparently) such spectacular effects could be created on a relatively low budget should be rewarded. Godzilla Minus One.

Make-Up and Hairstyling: Poor Things. 

Also, they moved the show up to 7. Can they do that? Especially without telling me?